[Statlist] Environmental Risk and Extreme Events: Ascona, July 10-15 2011

[Anthony Davison]

Major environmental effects of climate change will be conveyed not through its effects on mean temperatures, 
rainfall or other climatic variables, but through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events, 
such as heatwaves, windstorms and heavy rainfall.  Such events can have major consequences for the built and 
natural environments, and may have large economic and ecological costs in addition to their potential for 
severe impacts on human health–the estimated 30,000 or more excess deaths in Europe during the summer 
heatwave of 2003 being an obvious example.  The impact of such events has long been understood within certain 
communities of environmental scientists.  Civil and construction engineers, hydrologists, and increasingly 
climatologists use statistical techniques based on the probabilistic theory of extreme values to guide them 
in modelling the sizes and frequencies of rare events.  The traditional uses of these ideas do not accommodate 
the complexities of modelling uncertainties in a changing environment, in which non-stationarity and spatial and 
temporal dependence must be taken into account for useful forecasting and realistic impact assessment.  The 
purpose of this workshop is to bring together researchers in statistics of extremes and in applied domains 
for whom this branch of statistical science is a key tool, in order to assess the state of the art in modelling 
of complex extreme events, to highlight ideas emerging from the statistical side that may be useful in 
applications, and to identify challenging environmental problems that need statistical innovations from both 
theoretical and applied researchers.  

The workshop will comprise invited talks and contributed talks and posters.  At this stage confirmed speakers 
include: Peter Challenor (Southampton), Petra Friederichs (Bonn),Douglas Maraun (Keil), Doug Nychka (NCAR), 
Brian Reich (NCSU), Holger Rootzén (Chalmers), Richard Smith (UNC), Jonathan Tawn (Lancaster), and 
Francis Zwiers (Victoria).

We welcome contributed papers, either oral or poster presentations, on topics within the ambit of the meeting.  

More details, including fees and access to the registration form, may be found at http://stat.epfl.ch/ascona2011

The revised deadline for registration is 15 May 2011.

Please forward this email to others who may be interested in participating.  

We look forward to seeing you in Ascona.  

Anthony Davison, Philippe Naveau and Jonathan Tawn


Professor A. C. Davison
EPFL-FSB-MATHAA-STAT, Station 8
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
CH-1015 Lausanne
Switzerland			Tel: + 41 (0)21 693 5502
				Sec: + 41 (0)21 693 2565
http://stat.epfl.ch/		Fax: + 41 (0)21 693 4250


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