[Statlist] Reminder: ETH/UZH ZüKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics by Leonhard Held, Universität Zürich, 12.11.2021

[Maurer Letizia]

We are glad to announce the following talk in the ETH/UZH ZüKoSt: Seminar on Applied Statistics:

"The Statistical Assessment of Replication Success - A Case for Reverse-​Bayes"   
by Leonhard Held, Universität Zürich

Time: Friday,  12.11.2021 at 15.15 h
Place: ETH Zurich, HG G 19.1

Abstract: Replicability of research findings is crucial to the credibility of all empirical domains of science. Large-​scale replication projects are increasingly conducted in order to assess to what extent claims of new discoveries can be confirmed in independent replication studies. However, there is no established standard how to assess replication success and in practice many different approaches are used. We argue that Reverse-​Bayes methods have a key role to play in the assessment of replication success. The main idea is to reverse Bayes' Theorem to determine a sceptical prior that would make the original finding no longer convincing. Sufficient incompatability of the sceptical prior and the replication study result is then used to quantify the degree of replication success. We show how this approach is directly related to the relative effect size, the ratio of the replication to the original effect estimate. This perspective leads to a new proposal to recalibrate the assessment of replication success.

Seminar website: https://math.ethz.ch/sfs/news-and-events/seminar-applied-statistics.html

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

We are glad that this talk can take place physically again. Please take note of the Covid certificate and mask requirements for joining this lecture. Further details can be found here, https://ethz.ch/services/en/news-and-events/internal-news/archive/2021/09/covid-certificate-requirement-in-all-lectures.html.


Organisers: F. Balabdaoui, A. Bandeira, P. L. Bühlmann, R. Furrer, L. Held, T. Hothorn, M. Kalisch, M. H. Maathuis, M. Mächler, L. Meier, M. Robinson, C. Strobl, S. van de Geer