[Statlist] Research Seminar in Statistics | *FRIDAY 22 MAY 2026* | GSEM, University of Geneva

[gsem-support-instituts]

Dear all,

We are pleased to invite you to our next Research Seminar, organized by Professor Davide La Vecchia on behalf of the Research Institute for Statistics and Information Science
< https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/research/institutes/risis/team/ >.

FRIDAY 22 MAY 2026, at 11:15 am, Uni Mail M 4220.

Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather prediction: From probabilistic forecasts to fair model comparisons
Sebastian LERCH, University of Marburg, Germany
< https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/staff-info?dn=f2i2godl3l >

ABSTRACT:
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based data-driven weather forecasting models have experienced rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies achieve impressive results and demonstrate substantial improvements over state-of-the-art physics-based numerical weather prediction models across a range of variables and evaluation metrics. Beyond improved predictions, the main advantages of data-driven weather models are their substantially lower computational costs and the faster generation of forecasts, once a model has been trained.

However, most efforts in data-driven weather forecasting have been limited to deterministic, point-valued predictions, making it impossible to quantify forecast uncertainties, which is crucial in research and for optimal decision making in applications. Moreover, fair comparisons of data-driven and physics-based models are challenging, with data-driven models operating by optimizing a training loss and using the prespecified loss function for this purpose, unlike physics-based models. In this talk, I will give an overview of recent work on uncertainty quantification methods to (1) generate probabilistic forecasts from deterministic data-driven weather models, and to (2) enable fair and meaningful comparisons of data-driven and physics-based deterministic models.> View the Research Seminar agenda: < https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/research/seminars/risis/ >

Regards,

Birgit Müller-Marreros
Assistant to the Research Institutes
Mail.unige.ch

GSEM Support for Research Institutes
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