[Statlist] Seminar ueber Statistik

[Christina Kuenzli]

                       ETH and University of Zurich 
      Proff. A.D. Barbour -- P. Buehlmann -- F. Hampel -- H.R. Kuensch 

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           We are pleased to announce the following talks
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Friday, April 15, 2005, 15.15, LEO C15

        Modeling nonstationary spatial covariance

        Peter Guttorp, University of Washington and Lund University
        
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Friday, April 22, 2005, 15.15, LEO C15

        A two-component model for counts of infectious diseases

        Leonhard Held, Department of Statistics, 
                       Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich

  We propose a stochastic model for the analysis of time series of
  disease counts as collected in typical surveillance systems on
  notifiable infectious diseases.  The model is based on a Poisson or
  negative binomial observation model with two components: A
  parameter-driven component relates the disease incidence to latent
  parameters describing endemic seasonal patterns, which are typical
  for infectious disease surveillance data. An observation-driven or
  epidemic component is modeled with an autoregression on the number
  of cases at the previous time points. The autoregressive parameter
  is allowed to change over time according to a Bayesian changepoint
  model with unknown number of changepoints.  Parameter estimates are
  obtained through Bayesian model averaging using Markov chain Monte
  Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In analyses of simulated and real datasets
  we obtain promising results.

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________________________________________________________
Christina Kuenzli            <kuenzli at stat.math.ethz.ch>
Seminar fuer Statistik      
Leonhardstr. 27,  LEO D11          phone: +41 1 632 3438         
ETH-Zentrum,                       fax  : +41 1 632 1228 
CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland        http://stat.ethz.ch/~